Fearing a sustained threat from Russia and reduced military protection from the United States, several European nations led by Poland, Estonia, the United Kingdom, and Germany are boosting defense spending. The European Union is also making $163 billion in defense loans available to its 27 member states. For two reasons, the loans will not cover purchases from U.S. defense manufacturers.
First, the EU wants to boost its defense manufacturing base. Second, it fears that President Donald Trump might, in response to some future grievance, suspend defense exports crucial to maintaining American equipment in European armories. Portugal has suspended plans to buy American F-35 fighter jets partly for this reason, although its main reason was to avoid spending more on defense.
The Trump administration reacted angrily to the EU’s decision to buy equipment only from its own defense contractors, with new tariffs, but that would be a mistake.
For a start, Europe’s action is not the same as its protectionist assault on American technology firms. Those businesses have been repeatedly and unfairly extorted by the EU because of their market success. Trump would be right to punish the EU for this with tariffs. In contrast, America will benefit from the EU building its defense industrial base. If it happens, it will allow European nations finally to take more responsibility for their security and reduce America’s outsize burden for their defense, which they have been promising since 2014.
It might seem a contradiction that new, Europe-only defense loans will benefit the U.S. in the long term. That’s because a European move to take a lead in its security must be sustained if it is to deliver desired strategic results. But it is so. Investing in indigenous European defense will bolster European support for those measures because it will bring popular economic benefits. The investments would also put European defense firms on a stronger foundation to provide sustained increases in the production of warfighting equipment and munitions. If Russia attacks an EU member state (most of which are NATO members), Europe would be in a position to respond as a true, perhaps even leading, military power and partner of the U.S.
A robust European defense would also allow the U.S. to redeploy Air Force fighter, bomber, refueling, and intelligence squadrons to the Pacific. Navy destroyers and carrier strike groups would be freed up. These finite assets would be critical in a U.S.-China war. Most American military analysts believe China will try to invade Taiwan before 2030. If the U.S. intervened to defend Taiwan, the U.S. military would face a Chinese air force and navy that was far bigger and, in many areas, with comparative combat capability. In short, the U.S. needs its most potent warfighting assets for the Pacific.
European defense must not be jeopardized. Europe’s new defense posture is part of that, but Russia also must understand that the U.S. remains committed to NATO. Trump recently emphasized this, saying the U.S. should redeploy more of its European forces to Poland, the nation that best exemplifies fair NATO burden-sharing.
European action is long overdue. NATO’s June 2023 Air Defender 23 exercise revealed that the U.S. military was overstretched by Europe’s neglect of defense spending.
That exercise simulated a surprise attack on Germany by Russia. As the Washington Examiner noted, the U.S. military “deployed 100 aircraft, including F-15, F-16, F-18, F-35 fighter aircraft, EA-18 electronic warfare aircraft, KC-46 and KC-135 refuelers, and C-17 and C-130 transports to defend its ally.” Most European states sent paltry commitments. France sent just one airborne radar aircraft.
Europe’s reliance on U.S. refueler aircraft was also apparent in the exercise. U.S. refuelers regularly exceeded Europe’s total refueler commitment 3-to-1. It is a sorry indictment of French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and others that it has taken them more than three years of the largest land war in Europe since 1945 to recognize the need for more defense spending. Fortunately, Scholz is leaving office, and Macron appears to have woken up to reality.
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That reality is that a revived European defense industrial base will make Europe, NATO, and America stronger. NATO serves Europe and America, but American political support for NATO has declined along with European neglect. The U.S. and Europe are major trading partners, far beyond anything Russia can offer America, with shared democratic values and mutual interests in the rule of law. It is far better that Europe boost its defense and restore American confidence than the trans-Atlantic alliance crumble.
Rather than complain about U.S. defense companies losing out in Europe’s defense renaissance, the Trump administration should welcome the broader strategic benefits. It should follow Europe in moving to bolster the U.S. defense industrial base.
