President Donald Trump has made a foolish decision to suspend certain Russia-focused activities by the U.S. military’s Cyber Command. Cyber Command is responsible for all military cyber operations in the United States. As first reported by the Record, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ordered the Command to “stand down from all planning against Russia, including offensive digital actions.” It is expected that this “guidance will last for the foreseeable future.”
This is the cybersecurity equivalent of chumming in waters infested with great white sharks and then jumping in that water while wearing a high-contrast bathing suit. It is not at all clever.
While Hegseth issued this directive, Trump is likely responsible for this decision. The action forms part of a broader array of recent intelligence community diktats to avoid actions that the Russians may view as provocative. Trump is issuing these directives to woo Russian President Vladimir Putin toward an agreement that ends the war in Ukraine. Unfortunately, there are two major problems with this Cyber Command action and related decisions.
First, these concessions reflect Trump’s fundamental misunderstanding of Putin’s nature. The Russian leader is a fundamentally different creature from the president. Where Trump is a businessman who seeks to build foundations for future deals off the back of public favor and praise, Putin is a former KGB intelligence officer whose leadership decisions are shaped indelibly by that formative experience. At the strategic level, this means Putin views America as Russia’s main enemy — and will continue to hold that perception whatever Trump does. At the tactical level, Putin views any American favor not as a cause for reciprocal compromise but rather as an indication of weakness and an invitation for Russia to exert increased pressure.
This is bad news for Trump’s effort to secure Russian concessions in relation to his Ukraine peace agenda. Putin will whisper sweet things in Trump’s ear about possible joint U.S.-Russia business deals and perhaps a broader detente at China’s expense. But he’ll manipulate, blackmail, and steal from any U.S. investors already foolish enough to risk sharing in the tendency of Russian investors to fly out of windows. Putin will not abandon his strategic partnership with China for the same reason he has invested so much in it. Namely, China offers both a critical economic and ideological partner in service of Russia’s global ambitions.
This Cyber Command decision is also problematic in and of itself. After all, the Russians will not reciprocate even if they claim they will do so. The cyber-offensive efforts of all three of the big Russian intelligence services, the GRU, SVR, and FSB, against U.S. interests are extensive and aggressive. The Russians also heavily rely on cyber mercenaries to carry out ransomware attacks on the U.S., which the Kremlin can then deny responsibility for. FSB officers use payoffs from ransomware attacks as a lucrative source of revenue, for example. Only China poses a greater cyber threat to the U.S.
The threat Russian intelligence services pose to U.S. interests reaches far beyond cyberspace. Indeed, unless Trump decides to go full deep state and bury the truth, the public will learn significant new information concerning violent attacks by the Russian intelligence services. That’s largely due to the hard work of House Intelligence Chairman Rep. Rick Crawford (R-AR).
ZELENSKY’S ARROGANCE CRASHES INTO TRUMP’S IGNORANCE IN THE OVAL OFFICE
Trump is right to seek effective diplomacy. But when dealing with Russia, the president must treat his interlocutor as who he is, not as he wishes Putin to be.
Weakening U.S. intelligence community action against Russia undermines U.S. security and Trump’s interest in bringing Putin toward more meaningful compromises.
